Power grids
Modern grids are the enabler — and current bottleneck — of the transition. Massive reinforcement, digitalization and HVDC links are required to integrate renewables.
- Transmission line length triples by 2060; distribution length doubles by 2050.
Source: DNV ETO 2025 pp. 61–63 - HVDC expands from 1% to 5% of transmission by 2050, driven by offshore and long-distance renewables.
Source: DNV ETO 2025 p. 62 - Annual grid investment rises USD 400 bn → ≈1 trn by 2050s; OPEX doubles to USD 600 bn/yr.
Source: DNV ETO 2025 p. 63 - Average grid tariff increases USD 45 → 74/MWh by 2060, offsetting half the renewable cost gains.
Source: DNV ETO 2025 p. 63 - Transmission line length nearly triples by 2060; distribution network length doubles by 2050, with Asia leading growth and high-income regions resuming expansion after a hiatus.
Source: DNV ETO 2025 (§3.6) - HVDC rises from 1% to 5% of global transmission by 2050, enabling long-distance and offshore integration (notably China, India, parts of Europe).
Source: DNV ETO 2025 (§3.6) - Queue times have ballooned: ~5 years (US) and >10 years (EU) for new transmission connections; >USD 1 bn was spent in 2023 curtailing Scottish wind and backfilling with gas in England.
Source: DNV ETO 2025 (§3.6) - Without grid constraints, renewables additions would be ~4% higher globally to 2035; regionally, Europe solar +16%, Europe wind +8%, North America wind +10%, OECD Pacific wind +14%.
Source: DNV ETO 2025 (§3.6) - Grid investment and OPEX rise from ~USD 400 bn/yr today to ~USD 1 tn/yr in the 2050s; OPEX doubles (USD 300 → 600 bn/yr). Average grid charges climb USD 45 → 74/MWh by 2060, offsetting nearly half of wholesale price declines (–USD 66/MWh).
Source: DNV ETO 2025 (§3.6) - Grid-enhancing technologies (dynamic line rating, flow control, topology optimization) and AI-assisted operations can reduce curtailment and congestion, but institutional and incentive barriers slow uptake.
Source: DNV ETO 2025 (§3.6)
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